Article by Cole Edmonson | January 1, 2023
Happy New Year!
In this article, I wanted to share five of my top predictions for the LEGO hobby in 2023.
Some of these are based off of specific announcements from The LEGO Company in recent days and months, while some are more general to growing trends in both the fandom and the global economy. My hope is to highlight both the advantages and potential pain points that these ongoing changes may bring to each kind of FOL (e.g. young and old, new and established, well-funded and budget-minded).
Most importantly, I’ll cover some of the unique opportunities that are available for everyone who wishes to continue growing in their abilities and enjoyment of the hobby, both creatively and socially. Enjoy!
My Top Five Predictions for 2023
Prediction #1 – The trend towards detail-dense, omni-connective, and advanced parts and building techniques will change the face of LEGO products, both large and small.
Over the last several years, we’ve seen an increasing number of highly-detailed LEGO sets, especially the larger kits with the higher piece counts and design budgets, that are approaching a level of high aesthetic quality nearly equivalent to high-profile MOC builds. More and more fans online are remarking on sets like 76989 Tallneck, 71741 Ninjago City Gardens, and even some of the Creator sets like 10265 Ford Mustang and comparing them to the advanced level of intricate and refined design that is routinely featured on top MOC builder blogs such as The Brothers Brick. Fan builders have always been highly passionate about their personal build projects, injecting the heavy amounts of personal passion, fine detail, tiny texture, and heavy parts usage – elements that have traditionally been out of scope for the company’s official kits and their constrictive design requirements. That, however, is changing with the advent of two things:
[Image Source: New Elementary]
- TLG has been hiring an increasing number of well-known AFOLs and esteemed MOC builders as product designers. This means that more of their staff is being deliberately selected and rewarded for their passion, personality, creative excellence, and/or building styles that they were already known and respected for in the FOL community. A few examples include Markus Rollbühler, Isaac Snyder, as well as LEGO Masters US contestants Boone Langston and Aaron Newman.
- We are seeing a shift toward smaller and more SNOT-driven pieces in the LEGO System of elements (as discussed in my prior article), largely as more of TLG’s products have been designed with adult builders’ preferences in mind. The most exciting element announced for this year’s sets, which also symbolizes this trend, is 3386, a 1x1x2/3 SNOT brick with curved back that allows for highly compact, multi-angled building. As a LEGO replicas builder, I believe 3386 will blow open the door all the further on realism building at smaller scales, and it is another part that allows for bottom-aligned SNOT connections.
All of these developments combined means that more LEGO sets are now deliberately built by the fans, for the fans, and the ‘look’ of the average LEGO product (i.e. marketed to ages 6yrs and older) is becoming that of a highly intricate model kit, possible at smaller scales, with more sophistication and a far wider variety of pieces than was available to previous generations. I would consider this a win for both the company and fans of all ages, provided that the sets remain affordable and accessible to most in TLG’s target demographic.
Prediction #2 – Global recession and inflation will significantly impact LEGO fans’ buying and building behaviors in 2023.
Price increases have been a frequent conversation topic for the last several months (mid-2022), when TLG began taking its many of its already released, already expensive sets and marking them up an additional 6–20% due to “the current global economic challenges of increased raw material and operating costs.” Additionally, the timing of these inflationary difficulties coincided with what many fans perceived as the company’s most frequent releases of big-ticket sets in its history. The $550 USD 76210 Hulkbuster and $250 (but tiny) 21337 Table Football sets, released later in 2022, have been particularly decried as overpriced for the design characteristics and features they include, and many people across FB groups, Discord servers, and the online community have expressed dissatisfaction with how ‘LEGO is announcing another huge set about every month.’
Creator: HollyOnFilm, November 2022
This trend of overall higher pricing is continuing in 2023 for TLG’s product lines across the board. In one such example, the Speed Champions line, the company is adding a hefty 20% increase (USD) to each of the theme’s signature car sets. Personally, one of the things I’ve always found appealing about this product line in recent years, besides the quality of the designs and parts variety that has been steadily improving, is that it’s predicated on offering smaller sets for smaller prices, making each real-life-based car a unique, fun splurge that more people (including parents) can drop money on and get a higher value in a compact package. It’s been an easy way to attract new people, esp. kids and young adults, to buy and try LEGO. While existing fans may continue to buy them at the higher prices, these will be a harder sell for the would-be newcomers (and their parents, where applicable) and become less accessible to the next generation of builders.
I’m observing that established AFOLs are switching their focus from buying as many of the recession-era, new-release sets to collecting / piecing together retired sets from 2021 and earlier, and the MOC builders especially are shifting more and more of their buying to bulk parts and very specific pieces for their personal projects, with less of those purchases being from TLG directly. Buying from the LEGO Brand Retail store oftentimes feels like getting fewer (if newer) sets, versus getting “more bang for the buck” at secondhand dealers.
Prediction #3 – Greater tension will emerge between the original purpose of ‘LEGO for kids’ and the adult fandom with its more ‘mature’ elements and competing interests.
It’s been interesting, as adults now provide more than 20% of TLG’s yearly revenue, to watch the advent of the company’s “18+” marketing efforts. As an AFOL myself, I’ve very much enjoyed having a greater selection of sets on the market that reflect many of my own preferences: realistic, scale, detail-oriented, intricately designed models that (best of all, in my opinion) serve as some of the most cost-effective and useful selections of parts available. Even as a kid, I would have enjoyed and admired (in amazement) how much of the design has progressed and wanted to buy some of these (if I could somehow afford it back then, before working a job and earning more than chore money / allowance, etc.).
The company has also evolved in the types of content and IPs that it endorses and produces sets for. TLG has a historically inconsistent policy on guns as violence, for example (read my article here), and gone are the days when LEGO’s license acquisition of The Simpsons was considered controversial. Sets depicting other popular TV sitcoms with more decidedly adult content have been released (e.g. Big Bang Theory, Friends, Seinfeld, The Office), and Queer Eye was also recently introduced as part of TLG’s diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. All of these sets make it into the same toy aisles, direct mail catalogs, websites, and many of the same social conversations about LEGO, and there’s very little separation of the ‘grownup LEGO’ content from the kids’ stuff that parents will universally approve.
At the same time, keeping younger kid attendees (under age 10) out of a LEGO convention will be a new policy incorporated this year at Bricks Cascade in my former home state of Oregon. According to the event’s board members in both email and social media responses to protests of the new policy, the decision was made based on multiple safety issues, unheeded warnings, and repeat occurrences of bad behavior by kids with negligent parents in previous years. This led to the event’s venue cracking down on kids’ ability to participate as attendees and a multi-factor committee decision for 2023 that, for better or worse, exemplifies how complicated it is becoming to mix both young children and adult hobbyists when there are some immature and irresponsible individuals in both groups.
In 1955, Godtfred Kirk Christiansen said in his thoughts on the LEGO System in Play, “Our idea has been to create a toy that prepares the child for life – appealing to its imagination and developing the creative urge and joy of creation that are the driving force in every human being.” The purpose of TLG’s core offering, and therefore the company itself historically, has been to develop products that will help develop children. The point of the toy is to help kids have thriving futures as they grow and mature into the adults of tomorrow. This fact is reflected in how many (if not most) of today’s AFOLs enjoy LEGO products in part because of their connection with the toy growing up. That being said, I wonder if many AFOLs consider how important it is to help serve the needs of the next generation over their own—to inspire kids as they continue developing, and to perhaps serve as an encouragement and guide (beyond simply exhibiting their MOCs at shows and on social). Some neat folks whom I know have started library clubs, afterschool programs, online courses, and other ways to ‘pass it on.’ Like the growing and maturing kids, these AFOLs are also progressing in their journey by finding new purposes for their hobby and further dimensions in which to help others.
Prediction #4 – A large wave of pandemic-born AFOLs will leave the hobby this year if they are not further engaged by the established community.
Consider the following screenshots of a listing I found recently on Facebook Marketplace: here, a man is selling his entire LEGO collection that he spent the last two years amassing, for a flat $8,000. He had this listing posted for about a month, had it marked as pending for about half that time, and then sold/removed the listing this last week.
This fascinating example is just one of many listings (often in FB groups) that I’ve been seeing on the internet… people who just got into LEGO during COVID, bought a considerable amount of LEGO products during that time (a lot of which they actually used in most cases), and then are now deciding to sell it all off rather than continue in the hobby. Many of them cite financial challenges, which I’m sure is indeed a major and unfortunate factor (all of us should indeed count ourselves fortunate when we’re not in the same boat). I wonder if it’s also the case that these newer FOLs never had much opportunity to get involved and relationally connected with other, more established fans. The lockdowns were a very isolated and somewhat prolonged period for people in many areas; these fledgling FOLs may have viewed LEGO as a comforting substitution and replacement for social interaction in that time, rather than a longer-term hobby to be complemented and reinforced by relationships in-person or online. When society returned to normal levels of going out and seeing people, spending time and money on trips and other activities, perhaps LEGO products didn’t fit the same perceived need as before.
Like kid builders who will benefit from intentional engagement and encouragement, I think these new-to-LEGO adults that found the hobby in the last few years really need some thoughtful and deliberate outreach from established AFOLs, more as a peer-to-peer dynamic, if they are to grow and stay in the hobby. People get into the LEGO hobby for all different reasons and through many different ways, and it would be helpful for more of them to get personal invitations to fan networking events, to local LUG meetings, and probably for The LEGO Company itself to advertise the existence of more of these fan-led groups and events (esp. as its own LEGO Con will not be held in ’23). There are so many different things you can do in the hobby to really have your own niche / angle / contribution that helps others and improves everyone’s experience.
Prediction #5 – More FOLs than ever before will monetize their hobby as creators and influencers on newer social platforms and independent/alternative media.
The reasons for this are many, and they include all the key factors from the other four predictions. As the hobby gets more expensive, as design processes and their analyses further develop, and as the need of younger and/or inexperienced FOLs for more learning resources continues to grow, we will see more of the existing fans switch to creating content that meets the educational and entertainment needs of the community, helping it grow; further examines and proliferates the knowledge of the fandom; and can often lead to the hobby’s monetization for the content creator. As fewer people are able afford to buy brand-new sets from TLG, for example, there is a huge opportunity for third parties to help them. This help can be to build other things with the pieces they already have, to provide them discounted deals on new and used parts, and to create new ways to look at and enjoy the LEGO system as a whole. This is especially true through information products and downloadable media that take things to the next level.
Video (particularly short form) has been taking over all of social media in general, and the growth of AFOL content in this medium will continue to be impressive as more of our creative LEGO people try their hand at creative social media and marketing techniques. Podcasting is a close cousin, when audio and video often go together, and it’s a fun excuse to get interesting people in the same room (or Zoom chat) at the same time for conversations and shared learnings; this is still one of the most underutilized content formats with the most potential. Online courses and ebooks for LEGO hobbyists exist to some degree but may very well get pushed farther in their production quality, comprehensive scope, and depth of study for this year. New and experimental tech platforms are becoming available all the time, and there is a strong probability of (AFOL) developers adapting and giving us more AI tools this year to enhance the fans’ knowledge and building experience as a whole. Even when it comes to traditional (still) photography, there is still so much in-camera trickery and post-production magic waiting to be applied in our fandom to take it to the next level. It’s all just a matter of who will try what first and then inspire others to follow along!
Summary of Predictions
The LEGO company, having celebrated its 90th birthday this last year, will continue to shift significantly in both its target customers (a hybrid of kids/families and dedicated adult hobbyists, with some tension) and its approach to more detailed, fan-based product design over time. Many of these marketing and product development shifts will coincide, for better or worse, with an increasingly strained global economy in 2023, causing TLG to raise prices. This will cause more of the company’s product lines to become less accessible to the hobby’s would-be newcomers and push the already existing fans to either decrease/abandon their LEGO buying or pursue new avenues of creativity and monetized content creation as a way to help their expensive pastime pay for itself.
Conclusion
Thanks for reading! In my opinion, the most important takeaway from these predictions is that even as the global economy (and probably TLG) faces a year of slowdown in demand and altered buying behavior, that doesn’t mean our hobby itself has to slow down! There will be unique challenges ahead, but that brings unique and rare opportunities to try things that have never been done before.
The LEGO experience, right down to its system of interlocking parts, is all about finding creativity through constraints. Why not take that principle of reflective imagination and persistent exploration and apply it in the macro, reconsidering the purpose of our hobby, what we’ve already got to work with, and how we can use it all to bring joy and inspiration to other people in new ways, whether that’s the next generation of LEGO fans or our fellow AFOLs in the here and now? That’s the best way to keep the hobby growing, to keep connecting bricks in innovative ways that connect people.
Leg godt,
Cole
Did I miss anything? What predictions sound more or less likely, based on your own observations? Let me know by sending a message here.
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